Amy's Robot

History of the Iowa Caucuses and Democratic Nominees +

In case anyone is wondering, here's how Iowa's Democratic caucuses have gone historically:

• 1972: Muskie
• 1976: Carter
• 1980: Carter
• 1984: Mondale
• 1988: Gephardt
• 1992: Harkin
• 1996: none held
• 2000: Gore

So, not much of a data set there, but 4 times, the winner has gone on to the nomination, and 3 times he hasn't. But the problem for Dean here isn't contending with historical precedent: it's that he has utterly lost momentum.

Oh, well, maybe the Democrats will have better luck in 2036 when the government considers legalizing the Democratic party again.

Here's a more detailed look at the winners and losers in Iowa over the years. Isn't it funny that out of 7 caucuses, only one winner (Carter) has gone on to become President. Update: When I wrote that, I meant out of Democratic caucuses, but when I looked back, I noticed that even out of 12 caucuses (either party), only Carter and GWB went on to win the general election the same year they won Iowa. Not exactly a kingmaking caucus.

categories: Politics
posted by adm at 10:45 PM | #