« Lost in Lost in Translation | Home | Gay People do Stand-Up »
January 27, 2004
History of the New Hampshire Primary +
Slightly more often than in the situation in Iowa, winning the New Hampshire primary is often a stepping stone to the nomination, especially if you've already won Iowa:
Democrats
1972 Edmund Muskie [McGovern got it]
1976 Jimmy Carter*
1980 Jimmy Carter
1984 Gary Hart [Mondale got nomination]
1988 Michael Dukakis*
1992 Paul Tsongas [Comeback Kid got nomination]
1996 Bill Clinton
2000 Al Gore*
Republicans
1972 Richard Nixon
1976 Gerald R. Ford
1980 Ronald Reagan*
1984 Ronald Reagan
1988 George H. W. Bush
1992 George H. W. Bush*
1996 Pat Buchanan [Dole got nomination]
2000 John McCain [GWB got nomination]
[source]
Update: I wrote this post this morning when I was in a hurry and extremely tired. The data is sort of skewed to look like NH determines the nominee more often then it really does, because (unlike Iowa's caucus) the primary happens even with unopposed incumbents. To help, I listed all campaigns back to 1972 and put *'s next to every non-incumbent candidate who went on to get the nomination. It's also worth pointing out that only three candidates from either party (Carter, Ford, Muskie) have won both NH and Iowa in the same year. Carter and Ford got the nomination, but Muskie won both in 1972, then ultimately lost the nomination to McGovern. Then Nixon kicked McGovern's ass.
