Amy's Robot

The Mystery of the Likely Voter

Are Bush and Kerry tied? Is Bush leading by three points? By eight?

Today’s NY Times asks why pollsters can't seem to agree on the election. Basically, because every poll asks differently worded questions and categorizes the elusive “likely voter” differently.....well, they’re probably all wrong.

This year, polling data might be more inaccurate than ever before. Hundreds of thousands of newly registered voters will not be classified as “likely” voters because they have no voting history. More young people exclusively use cell phones that can’t be reached by pollsters. There’s caller ID, call blocking, and the fact that when you just want to eat dinner and watch Desperate Housewives, you probably won’t agree to spend 15 minutes answering questions about the President’s job approval.

This Alternet article reminds us that in 2000, virtually every poll gave Bush a significant lead over Gore, which didn’t turn out to be true on Election Day. “Since the first presidential debate some polls have showed Kerry and Bush as even and suggested the election is too close to call. This is the only trustworthy prediction that anyone can make.”

Of course, the polls do matter if voters start thinking idiot things like “Oh, Bush is going to win anyway so I shouldn’t bother voting.” Maybe this is the year for those likely voters to tune out the chatter, and subscribe to “the only poll that matters is the one on November 2” philosophy. As the Alternet article concludes, "In this election, and especially in the crucial swing states, it is not the few undecided voters but the many new and returning lapsed voters – the unknown voters – who will make the difference."

If, like me, you don’t understand many of the nuances of polling this Scholastic/NYT article clearly explains it.

If you want to make yourself crazy, you can check Slate’s election scorecard, which lists all current polls.

categories: Politics
posted by Emily at 12:24 PM | #