Additional Oscar commentary:
Well, I don't think Chris Walken is an appalling actor, like my cohort does, but I certainly don't think his performance in Catch Me if You Can merits an Oscar, or really, a nomination. And Amy's right -- he did knock Dennis Quaid off the list, which doesn't make any sense. Also, Eminem probably does deserve best song, but Chicago will get it. Doesn't really matter though, because either way, not only will we see Eminem perform AT THE OSCARS but we'll also have all the attendant controversy between now and then to look forward to. Hurray for fake rebellion and sanctimony!
Hey, who's going to win Best Actor? I have no idea. They already gave Jack the sympathy vote a couple years ago for the Greg Kinnear movie, right? Who's going to win Best Supporting Actor? Chris Cooper, deservedly so. Best Actress seems like kind of a toss-up too. Please please please don't let it be Renee.
Chicago will win cinematography, as it probably should. The guy who did the banal Road to Perdition is dead, so no one will feel the same sense of obligation they did when he did American Beauty -- remember that endless speech? I think they should choose Chicago for cinematography, but then give the actual statue to the guy who did it for Moulin Rouge, since he seemed to have more to do with the visualization of Chicago than its own DP did.
I think Chicago is going to win Director. Like Amy says, who wants to vote for Polanski. Or maybe it'll be the one nod to Gangs of New York, unless Daniel Day Lewis is. This will help: Chicago is going to win Best Picture, so probably that means the director will win best director...that's the way it usually goes (I think), even though it hasn't been that way lately. (Ridley Scott, anyone?) And I guess it goes without saying that El Crimen will win best foreign, since that's the only one that anyone has seen. Wouldn't it be funny if the only thing Gangs of New York won is Costumes? It could happen.
Honestly, most of these movies suck anyway, except for maybe Far From Heaven (which I haven't seen), so I guess I'm just in it for the Eminem this year.