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February 21, 2007
Oscar Picks
The Oscars are this Sunday. It's a pretty good year this year, and for once I'm OK with any of the nominees for major awards winning (with the notable exception of Leonardo DiCaprio--sorry, man. You had it, you lost it.)
These picks represent who we think will win, not necessarily who we want to win. Please add your picks for any categories you want to predict in the comments.
Actor in a leading role
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND [Amy]
Actor in a supporting role
Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS [Amy]
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED
(I'd love it if Mark Wahlberg won for what was one of my very favorite performances of last year, but it's not going to happen. -amy)
Actress in a leading role
Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN [Amy]
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN
(Probably the single best category of this year's Oscars--these are all really great. But there's no stopping the Helen Mirren juggernaut. -amy)
Actress in a supporting role
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS [Amy]
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL
(As a friend said, Jennifer Hudson's "And I Am Telling You" is was last year's pod racing scene from The Phantom Menace. Rest of the movie was ehh, but that one scene sure was something. -amy)
Animated feature film
CARS [Amy]
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE
Art direction
DREAMGIRLS
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
PAN'S LABYRINTH [Amy]
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
THE PRESTIGE
Cinematography
THE BLACK DAHLIA
CHILDREN OF MEN [Amy]
THE ILLUSIONIST
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE
(Based on Roger Ebert's observation that, to predict the Academy's picks for technical awards, just substitute "most" for "best". -amy)
Costume design
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
DREAMGIRLS [Amy]
MARIE ANTOINETTE
THE QUEEN
Directing
BABEL
THE DEPARTED [Amy]
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
UNITED 93
(Yeah, I know, Clint will probably get it again. But, to paraphrase ADM, Scorsese really deserved it for The Aviator, and Million Dollar Baby, aka the most minimally-directed movie to ever win Best Director, won. So this year, it would make some sort of twisted sense that Scorsese would finally win it for his straight drama with no airplanes or special effects, and Eastwood's big epic war movie in Japanese would lose. I mean, who the hell knows. -amy)
Documentary feature
DELIVER US FROM EVIL
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH [Amy]
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY
Documentary short subject
THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT
RECYCLED LIFE [Amy]
REHEARSING A DREAM
TWO HANDS
Film editing
BABEL [Amy]
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
UNITED 93
Foreign language film
AFTER THE WEDDING
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
PAN'S LABYRINTH [Amy]
WATER
Makeup
APOCALYPTO
CLICK
PAN'S LABYRINTH [Amy]
(I'm assuming we're looking at a Mel Gibson shutout this year. -amy)
Music (score)
BABEL [Amy]
THE GOOD GERMAN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Music (song)
"I Need to Wake Up" - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
"Listen" - DREAMGIRLS
"Love You I Do" - DREAMGIRLS
"Our Town" - CARS
"Patience" - DREAMGIRLS [Amy]
Best picture
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA [Amy]
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN
(Tough one. The Queen and LMS are both too small-scale to win, Babel is the kind of thing the Academy usually flips for, but it just wasn't all that great. The Departed was probably too violent and nasty, and a lot of people hated the ending. Iwo Jima was in Japanese, but its anti-war message and Eastwoodiness give it the best chance. -amy)
Animated short film
THE DANISH POET
LIFTED
THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL
MAESTRO
NO TIME FOR NUTS
Live action short film
BINTA AND THE GREAT IDEA (BINTA Y LA GRAN IDEA)
ÉRAMOS POCOS (ONE TOO MANY)
HELMER & SON
THE SAVIOUR
WEST BANK STORY
Sound editing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA [Amy]
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
Sound mixing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
DREAMGIRLS [Amy]
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
Visual effects
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
POSEIDON
SUPERMAN RETURNS [Amy]
Adapted screenplay
BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN [Amy]
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Original screenplay
BABEL [Amy]
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
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Comments
Not sure what 'minimally-directed' means but Million Dollar Baby was one of the most deserving Best Picture winners ever. The fact that Eastwood's direction of that emotional tale felt so discrete is actually the highest tribute one can pay. To do everything while appearing to do nothing is the highest form of skill and that's what Eastwood managed. From the sound of things he's done it again with Letters from Iwo Jima. I do wonder though whether enough voters have seen the film but this a weird year in which roughly 25% of the vote will be enough to win.
Posted by: Rob at February 21, 2007 3:20 PM
This year's Oscars will be especially interesting. There are several movies that I think deserve to win and quite a few ground-breaking documentaries too. One of them is the film “Jesus Camp” by Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady, which features what an organization called “Kids In Ministry International” does. Basically they recruit children and make them “talk to God.” The provocative nature of the film's contents have prompted outrage from non-evangelical Christians and secular people, who suggest that Kids In Ministry International founder and director Becky Fischer employs brainwashing and child abuse to achieve her ministry's goals. We recently got an exclusive interview with Pastor Becky Fischer if you and you readers are as intrigued as I was, please check this link: “Oscar-Nominated Jesus Camp's Leading Lady Speaks Out” http://www.orato.com/node/1820
Posted by: Orato Editor at February 21, 2007 4:42 PM
So much consensus this year, on everything but Best Picture. I wouldn't put much money on any of the five, and I'd love to know how close the balloting was. The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine are the co-favorites in Vegas, for what that's worth.
Posted by: Foster at February 21, 2007 5:19 PM
I think Peter O'Toole will win Best Actor category for his role in Venus. He played an old man in love brilliantly.
The cringe-worthy age difference between him and his love interest may prevent this, but I would love to be proven wrong.
Posted by: Georgina at February 21, 2007 10:14 PM
* best picture: seems like a toss-up. who knows. the departed?
* best director: scorsese, even though he doesn't deserve it this year
* best actor: forrest whitaker
* best actress: helen mirren. saw it last night. pretty great
* best supporting actor: alan arkin, but that would be cool/funny if mark wahlberg got it
* best supporting actress: jennifer hudson in a walk. you should change your ballot before sending it in.
* screenplay (adapted): the departed. should've cut the dinner date scene, though
* screenplay (original): babel? very tough category -- everything was very imaginative this year. the queen had a bad beginning, but a good rest of the movie.
the rest are wild guesses:
* animated: happy feet
* art direction: pan's labyrinth
* cinematography: children of men. if it doesn't win, the world sucks.
* costume design: the queen? i never get this category right. should be golden flower.
* documentary: gore
* editing: babel
* foreign language: pan's labyrinth
* makeup: pan's labyrinth
* score: who knows. babel?
* song: dreamgirls
* sound editing: iwo jima? that or brothers. toss-up.
* sound mixing: dreamgirls. category should be combined with editing. who even knows the difference.
* visual effects: superman. the best never seems to win, though.
* shorts, etc: who knows.
i feel bad for letters from iwo jima. it was a good movie, but it wasn't nominated for best foreign language film. maybe it will win, as voters split the difference despite the language? maybe sunshine will win in a devastating blow to scorsese? tough to say.
to the guy who was talking about million dollar baby. fine, maybe it deserverd best picture, but there WAS NO CHALLENGE TO DIRECTING THAT MOVIE. it had one set and 3 actors, one of whom was the director himself. say what you want about the quality of the film, but the aviator was a difficult film to direct, and given that it was nominated for best picture, too, one can't say that scorsese didn't get the award because the academy thought the movie wasn't any good.
Posted by: adm at February 25, 2007 1:10 PM
After Crash last year, I wouldn't put it past Babel to win. It has a lot of things the Academy likes: lots of actors, people crying, and a naive moral that can make even the dumbest actor feel smart.
I also think Children of Men will be shut out, much as it pains me to say. I'd bet The Departed gets the Screenplay award.
It's funny that this year there's no doubt about the acting awards. Everyone agrees it should and will be Idi Amin, Queen Elizabeth, and the two singers from Detroit. And I'm sure looking forward to all the smarmy self-congratulation when Hollywood gives three acting awards to African Americans. Just think of how happy Hattie McDaniel, Sidney Poitier, and George Clooney would be if they were alive today.
Posted by: T-Rock at February 21, 2007 11:47 AM